Tuesday, March 3, 2020

Armageddon, only not quite

Covid-19 is coming.  At this point the consensus is that everyone in the world is going to get it, pretty much, and a bunch of us are going to die of it.  That doesn't mean you should not worry about passing it on, of course.  Slowing the rate of infection is a great way to improve our response quality and lower the burden on the system at any given time.  Somewhere between .5% and 3% are going to die of it, most likely, with a heavy lean towards older people dying.  It isn't a thing to be trifled with.

Watching what people say about this is a fascinating exercise.  I have seen posts talking about how scary it is and emphasizing that everyone needs to wash their hands a lot, but also posts talking about how the flu has killed many more people this year than Covid-19, so calm the fuck down.  When something siezes the public imagination like this I can't help but stare at the human reactions in awe and wonder.

Personally, I am stocking up on food and medicine.  Not because civilization is going to end, because it won't, but if a ton of people get sick and governments start implementing quarantines supply chains start breaking.  Who knows what food and medicine I will be able to get when Toronto's infection situation is at its worst?  Also if I end up having to be home ill for weeks on end and can't go out without risking passing the infection on, I should have all my shopping taken care of.

I talked to the Flautist about this and it worried her a great deal.  Not just the news, but my response.  I have a 'bah, the world will be fine, don't panic' response to all kinds of things in the news that get other people all aflutter.  This is different though.  I have extra packs of menstrual supplies, toilet paper, ibuprofen, and cleaning products along with tons of dried food.  Not because it is time to panic, but because other people will be panicking and I need to get out ahead of them in building a stash.  I will end up using all the stuff I have bought anyway, so it won't go to waste.

It is going to be extra difficult on those who are in precarious financial situations.  I have the money to buy a month's worth of everything and it isn't a problem.  Some people don't though, and as usual when there is a systemic disruption it is the poor who won't be able to stretch to get past it.

Seriously though, you should stock up.  Don't fool yourself with things like "aww, it won't be that bad" because even if you are only kinda sick, you are going to be morally obligated to stay home, and you will need things.  Don't try to weasel out with "meh, I will just get food delivered" because if 25% of the delivery people are out sick, and 10 times as many people as usual want food delivered, you aren't getting that delivery.  Figure out a way to store a bunch of the food, medicine, toiletries, and other necessities of life now, while supply chains are still intact and getting those things is easy. 

There are already stores that are running out of things, partly because of panic, partly because so much of our stuff is manufactured in China.  Don't be the last person to realize what is coming.

Civilization is going to be fine.  You, on the other hand, might not.  So have a plan, and make sure that plan doesn't include getting scammed, because I have already seen Covid-19 based marketing out there, and more will be coming.

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