Friday, May 25, 2018

Strategic reversal

Ontario's election is coming up in a couple weeks and things are looking good.  The Conservatives are lead by Doug Ford, an angry white man who does everything he can to channel Donald Trump.  Doug Ford's notable achievements include being the brother of world famous crack smoking internet meme Rob Ford, being born rich, and convincing people that he will bring back the good ole days.

In the early polling the Conservatives were doing great, and were the clear leaders.  The latest poll has shown a dramatic reversal of fortune for them.

NDP (left wing)   - 47
Cons (right wing) - 33
Liberal (centrist)  - 14
Green                   - 4

I wouldn't particularly mind another Liberal government because they have had their scandals and their fiscal blunders but every government does that.  They have been good on social policy though and that is key for me. 

The NDP seem poised to continue the Liberal social agenda, which largely speaking is a slow march towards progressive values.  They aren't moving as fast as I would like but they are moving in the right direction and realistically no government will move as quickly in this regard as I would want, so I will take what I can get.  Their fiscal policy is pretty standard for left wing politics and looks perfectly fine from where I sit.

Overall this is superb news.  The Liberals are getting booted out because they have been in power awhile, and that is fine.  One thing that concerns me though is that people will often talk about how there are two real parties in Canada, Liberal and Conservative, and any vote for the NDP or Greens is just a vote thrown away.  Liberals often accuse NDP voters of helping the Conservatives whenever they vote NDP, and demand strategic voting to prop up the 'inevitable' Liberal victory.

Not this time.

The Liberals are down and out.  They will be back someday of course but this time around it is time for all those lefty and centrist voters who just want to vote 'Not Conservative' to strategically vote for the NDP.  The strategy is on the other foot this time.

One thing that is quite different for me in this election is I have a friend who is running for office.  Andrew Drummond is the NDP candidate in Burlington and it makes me smile because I remember him back in university at age 19 and the idea of that person governing is nothing short of hilarious.

But people grow up, it turns out, and they are quite different at the age of 38 than the age of 19.

I know that Andrew is hard working (far harder working than me, no doubt), deeply interested in politics and governance, and has values that I respect.  If he is elected I am certain he will help govern in ways that will improve Ontario.  His FB page:

Ontario's citizens have a choice between bigotry and trickle down economics from the Conservatives, or inclusiveness and equality from the NDP.  The choice is clear.

4 comments:

  1. That poll looks like a bit of an outlier (see recent poll at the bottom of: https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/onvotes/poll-tracker/)

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    1. There have been two polls today that are both outliers in the same direction, and the derivative of the polls over the last few days has been right on this path.

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    2. Do you have a link to the second poll?

      Do you have any evidence that the derivative has a predictive effect? In US general elections it does not, but I could see rationales for why it might in Canada.

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  2. A few weeks ago I predicted that the NDP would get more votes than the PCs but that the PCs would win a majority government. Right now the CBC poll tracker has the NDP in the lead by 1.5% and a 51% chance of a PC majority. Hopefully the NDP pull a little further ahead and I end up being wrong, but wow does this have the potential to be the stupidest election in Ontario history.

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